Friday, July 04, 2008

Betancourt Release Could Backfire

Backfire? Yes, it could.

I have been noticing the gloating of the press, the diplomats, the Columbian and French leaders, the army - all to nauseating effect on the BBC World Service radio.

I think its a mistake. They seem to hope that the great win, the dreamy raid by the military, will somehow tell the FARC have no hope for success and they might as well give up now.

What, are they mad?! The FARC are now backed into a corner like a mad dog. It has no hope but to fight, to push the button on mutually assured violence. They have lost, but they won't go down without causing much more casualties. Do not forget they hold many, many more hostages.

Sure, some might hope they will see the light and negotiate an amnesty by the release of the remaining hostages.

But consider these two last points. They have not hesitated to kill in the past and there are some in the higher echelon that would rather not be embarrassed (and for them they cannot receive amnesty). If I were them, I would make an example.

I am not them, please note, I do not like to see violence. But I think the governments involved and especially the media should try at least to put themselves, just for a fantasy moment, into the mind of a guerrilla leader with a cause that has caused him/her to live outside the law for decades for a cause similar to a devout religious observance, to have killed for their cause, and then wonder, what is possible.


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