Wednesday, October 18, 2006

Scenarios That Hurt

I have always wondered which of these scenarios more accurately describes the real relationship of posturing to actual results.

A. You say that your candidate/party/referendum is likely to win, so some supporters of said candidate/party/referendum don't come out to cast their vote and your candidate/party/referendum loses.
B. You say that your candidate/party/referendum needs every vote because we are neck and neck so get out there and vote, but this causes some despair and some supporters don't cast their vote.
C. The media purports one candidate/party/referendum is doing very well and the other candidate/party/referendum is likely to lose, so the same supporters of that one candidate/party/referendum do not come out to cast the vote, feeling secure that their candidate/party/referendum will do well.

Lately we have had the Democrats saying that Bush and his cronies will be removed, the tide is turning, run the crooks out of office, etc, etc. I think this might very well be working against the Democrats. (Perhaps rod will help but showing me a few 'here, here and here' links to show me which of the choices more aptly describes these situations - without succumbing to whining about one or the other party).

After all, I don't think it is a situation like the battlefield where one side overruns the other's defenses, and, upon seeing that, the rest of the soldiers run to join the victorious charge. Its sounds more like a few lieutenants are attempting to rally the troops, only to be found later face down in the mud.

Okay, okay, I personally can easily imagine the Republicans losing control of one or both houses of congress (well, yes that could be due, in part - a large part - to the fact that I read a lot of the MSM). But then I have two problems with this portrayal of the situation :
"I'm confident we're going to keep the Senate; I'm confident we're going to keep the House" and later "Mr. Rove was upbeat, telling stories from the campaign trail and joking about skewed political coverage that disproportionately shows Democrats poised to take control of Congress"
Problem 1. Rove seems to be adding to the weakness of a potential scenario A. mentioned above.
Problem 2. If Rove says this, he must be quite secure in the knowledge that the Republicans will hold both houses. After all he would not like to give ammunition to the Left that will accuse him of losing his evil superpowers (I still love the 'dark side' analogies). So, it would seem he is not at all worried about scenario A.

Doesn't it seem that in the last few elections that the Democrats were purported to be closer than the actually were? No need to challenge me on that. I am not looking at numbers. Just comparing what the press says and the fact that the USA has a Republican president, senate and house. Go figure.

Ps, A. and C.above are indeed very similar and that is because A. represents the Democrats and C. represents the media. B? Well that represents the Texas Gubernatorial race. I am worried about Kinky Friedman. I want him to win. So much so, that I asked someone how difficult is it for me, a lapsed yank, to vote in Texas!
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